{January 2022} The Seller’s Market Has Finally Arrived
A belated Happy CNY! If you were born in the year of the tiger, you are courageous and energetic. You love a challenge and are prepared to take risks. After almost two years of playing defense, I wish everyone a year of great adventure and exploration!
The NYC real estate market solidified into a seller’s market in January. We talked about how bidding wars were becoming more common in the last couple of months. But this month we clearly felt the pinch of tight supply. When a buyer waited till the weekend to go out, some of the properties that were confirmed earlier in the week would be gone by Friday. The supply gauge helped explain the picture: back in October, our market had 7.7 months of for supply. By December, supply had shrunk to 5.3 months. Compare this with Oct 2020, when we were at the depth of pandemic, the market had almost 20 months of supply. It took a while, but the table has finally turned from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market in NYC.
Good Read
The material and labor shortage have caused the renovation costs to skyrocket. And for that reason, I am having a tough time selling a townhouse that needs a gut reno. This article tries to explain why we are experiencing the Great Resignation while Europe is not.
The big momentum we saw in January slowed down in March, as the expectation of rate cuts dimmed. It was as if the subset of buyers who were rushing to take advantage of the window where prices were still low and rates were still high, had done what they needed to do and the market slowly came back to the slower pace of 2023.
February was a little busier than January, which was busier than all of 2023. It felt that spring was in the air after a long winter for the New York real estate market.
2024 started with a busy tone for the New York City real estate market. For all of 2023, we said to our buyers that “you marry the price but not the rate”, meaning now was a good time to buy because it’s a buyer’s market and prices were negotiable.
The real estate market in NYC saw about 15% more transactions in December 2023 than a year ago in December 2022. Is it a telltale sign that the real estate prices will recover in 2024? Prices haven’t moved but more buyers have come off the sidelines and jumped into the market to start the search.
Rates came down from their highs. Wall Street debated how soon and how much the Fed would cut rates next year.
Compared to last May, before rates started to rise (does anyone still remember those days?!) prices were now down about 11%. Transaction volumes were down 40%. Inventory was up almost 60%.
The NYC real estate market is at an interesting crossroad. On the one hand, we feel a lot of pent-up demand from buyers who have been watching and waiting for rates to go down.